Updated July 9, 2020, 117 days from election day 2020.

Who will win the electoral college?

Biden is projected to win between 227 and 439 electoral college votes. Trump is projected to win between 99 and 311 electoral college votes. In 25000 simulations of the presidential election from the perspective of July 9, 2020, Biden wins 84% and Trump wins 16%.

Who will win each state?

Alabama

Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 46% of the vote in Alabama. Trump is projected to receive between 47% and 68%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Alabama, Biden wins 6% and Trump wins 94%.

Alaska

Biden is projected to receive between 36% and 54% of the vote in Alaska. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Alaska, Biden wins 31% and Trump wins 69%.

Arizona

Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 55% of the vote in Arizona. Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Arizona, Biden wins 66% and Trump wins 34%.

Arkansas

Biden is projected to receive between 31% and 50% of the vote in Arkansas. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 63%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Arkansas, Biden wins 15% and Trump wins 85%.

California

Biden is projected to receive between 55% and 72% of the vote in California. Trump is projected to receive between 24% and 40%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in California, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Colorado

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 61% of the vote in Colorado. Trump is projected to receive between 34% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Colorado, Biden wins 90% and Trump wins 9%.

Connecticut

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 67% of the vote in Connecticut. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 47%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Connecticut, Biden wins 92% and Trump wins 8%.

Delaware

Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 68% of the vote in Delaware. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 50%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Delaware, Biden wins 86% and Trump wins 14%.

District of Columbia

Biden is projected to receive between 79% and 97% of the vote in District of Columbia. Trump is projected to receive between 1% and 15%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in District of Columbia, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Florida

Biden is projected to receive between 45% and 54% of the vote in Florida. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 51%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Florida, Biden wins 68% and Trump wins 31%.

Georgia

Biden is projected to receive between 34% and 62% of the vote in Georgia. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Georgia, Biden wins 50% and Trump wins 49%.

Hawaii

Biden is projected to receive between 52% and 75% of the vote in Hawaii. Trump is projected to receive between 13% and 39%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Hawaii, Biden wins 99% and Trump wins 1%.

Idaho

Biden is projected to receive between 19% and 42% of the vote in Idaho. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 68%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Idaho, Biden wins 5% and Trump wins 94%.

Illinois

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 69% of the vote in Illinois. Trump is projected to receive between 24% and 46%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Illinois, Biden wins 93% and Trump wins 7%.

Indiana

Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 48% of the vote in Indiana. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 60%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Indiana, Biden wins 16% and Trump wins 83%.

Iowa

Biden is projected to receive between 40% and 53% of the vote in Iowa. Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 56%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Iowa, Biden wins 40% and Trump wins 59%.

Kansas

Biden is projected to receive between 33% and 50% of the vote in Kansas. Trump is projected to receive between 43% and 65%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Kansas, Biden wins 16% and Trump wins 84%.

Kentucky

Biden is projected to receive between 29% and 46% of the vote in Kentucky. Trump is projected to receive between 49% and 67%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Kentucky, Biden wins 4% and Trump wins 96%.

Louisiana

Biden is projected to receive between 29% and 51% of the vote in Louisiana. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 65%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Louisiana, Biden wins 19% and Trump wins 80%.

Maine

Biden is projected to receive between 46% and 61% of the vote in Maine. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Maine, Biden wins 81% and Trump wins 19%.

Maryland

Biden is projected to receive between 52% and 70% of the vote in Maryland. Trump is projected to receive between 23% and 43%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Maryland, Biden wins 98% and Trump wins 2%.

Massachusetts

Biden is projected to receive between 54% and 72% of the vote in Massachusetts. Trump is projected to receive between 24% and 42%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Massachusetts, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Michigan

Biden is projected to receive between 46% and 56% of the vote in Michigan. Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 51%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Michigan, Biden wins 81% and Trump wins 19%.

Minnesota

Biden is projected to receive between 46% and 62% of the vote in Minnesota. Trump is projected to receive between 34% and 53%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Minnesota, Biden wins 81% and Trump wins 19%.

Mississippi

Biden is projected to receive between 34% and 51% of the vote in Mississippi. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 63%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Mississippi, Biden wins 20% and Trump wins 80%.

Missouri

Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 51% of the vote in Missouri. Trump is projected to receive between 45% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Missouri, Biden wins 22% and Trump wins 78%.

Montana

Biden is projected to receive between 31% and 49% of the vote in Montana. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 61%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Montana, Biden wins 18% and Trump wins 82%.

Nebraska

Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 48% of the vote in Nebraska. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 68%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Nebraska, Biden wins 11% and Trump wins 89%.

Nevada

Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 61% of the vote in Nevada. Trump is projected to receive between 34% and 55%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Nevada, Biden wins 68% and Trump wins 32%.

New Hampshire

Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 59% of the vote in New Hampshire. Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 51%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Hampshire, Biden wins 72% and Trump wins 28%.

New Jersey

Biden is projected to receive between 49% and 65% of the vote in New Jersey. Trump is projected to receive between 29% and 47%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Jersey, Biden wins 94% and Trump wins 6%.

New Mexico

Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 62% of the vote in New Mexico. Trump is projected to receive between 31% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Mexico, Biden wins 87% and Trump wins 12%.

New York

Biden is projected to receive between 52% and 67% of the vote in New York. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 43%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New York, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

North Carolina

Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 56% of the vote in North Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 57%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in North Carolina, Biden wins 61% and Trump wins 38%.

North Dakota

Biden is projected to receive between 18% and 40% of the vote in North Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 50% and 73%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in North Dakota, Biden wins 2% and Trump wins 98%.

Ohio

Biden is projected to receive between 40% and 55% of the vote in Ohio. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 56%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Ohio, Biden wins 50% and Trump wins 50%.

Oklahoma

Biden is projected to receive between 23% and 42% of the vote in Oklahoma. Trump is projected to receive between 52% and 70%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Oklahoma, Biden wins 2% and Trump wins 98%.

Oregon

Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 65% of the vote in Oregon. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Oregon, Biden wins 87% and Trump wins 13%.

Pennsylvania

Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 60% of the vote in Pennsylvania. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 53%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Pennsylvania, Biden wins 67% and Trump wins 33%.

Rhode Island

Biden is projected to receive between 46% and 68% of the vote in Rhode Island. Trump is projected to receive between 24% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Rhode Island, Biden wins 90% and Trump wins 10%.

South Carolina

Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 53% of the vote in South Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 64%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in South Carolina, Biden wins 28% and Trump wins 72%.

South Dakota

Biden is projected to receive between 22% and 47% of the vote in South Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 46% and 71%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in South Dakota, Biden wins 8% and Trump wins 92%.

Tennessee

Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 48% of the vote in Tennessee. Trump is projected to receive between 46% and 63%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Tennessee, Biden wins 10% and Trump wins 90%.

Texas

Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 52% of the vote in Texas. Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 56%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Texas, Biden wins 40% and Trump wins 60%.

Utah

Biden is projected to receive between 26% and 45% of the vote in Utah. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 57%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Utah, Biden wins 17% and Trump wins 82%.

Vermont

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 70% of the vote in Vermont. Trump is projected to receive between 15% and 38%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Vermont, Biden wins 98% and Trump wins 2%.

Virginia

Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 63% of the vote in Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 30% and 50%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Virginia, Biden wins 84% and Trump wins 16%.

Washington

Biden is projected to receive between 50% and 67% of the vote in Washington. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 47%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Washington, Biden wins 96% and Trump wins 4%.

West Virginia

Biden is projected to receive between 18% and 40% of the vote in West Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 53% and 76%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in West Virginia, Biden wins 1% and Trump wins 99%.

Wisconsin

Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 56% of the vote in Wisconsin. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Wisconsin, Biden wins 72% and Trump wins 28%.

Wyoming

Biden is projected to receive between 13% and 36% of the vote in Wyoming. Trump is projected to receive between 52% and 76%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Wyoming, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

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